Key Points:

  • Australian employment rose by 56,300 people in December, another outstanding result, which left employment up 444,400 compared to a year earlier. 
  • Australia’s unemployment edged higher, to 4.0%, while participation in the workforce reached a new record high.
  • Hours worked jumped in December and have tracked closely with employment growth over the past year. 

Australian employment rose by 56,300 people in December — well above market expectations — while the unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.0%.

Australian employment increased by 444,400 people over the past year, including 250,400 over the past six months alone. That type of growth remains remarkable, given Australia’s otherwise challenging economy.

The main concern around Australian job growth is that it has been concentrated in non-market industries, such as healthcare & social assistance, which are often insulated from market conditions. So, there appears to be a bit of a market vs. non-market divide emerging across the Australian economy.

Full-time employment fell by 23,700 people in December, but that was more than offset by an 80,000-person increase in part-time employment. However, that’s less of a concern since full-time employment has accounted for two-thirds of employment gains over the past year, consistent with long-term trends. This is still an economy that creates a lot of high-quality and well-paying jobs.

Bar graph titled “Change in Australian employment” shows the annual change in employment for full-time, part-time, and total jobs from 2019 through 2024. With a vertical axis ranging from -800,000 to 1,200,000, Australian employment rose by 444,400 people over the past year, remaining high by historical standards.
Bar graph titled “Change in Australian employment” shows the annual change in employment for full-time, part-time, and total jobs from 2019 through 2024. With a vertical axis ranging from -800,000 to 1,200,000, Australian employment rose by 444,400 people over the past year, remaining high by historical standards.

Australia’s unemployment rate increased slightly to 4.0% in December. Over the past three months, it has averaged 4.0%, which sits well below the 4.3% forecast from the RBA’s latest forecasts. That means the job market continues to surprise on the upside, proving to be tighter than policymakers expect.

Broader measures of labour market health, such as the underemployment and underutilisation rates, also remained healthy in November. The underemployment rate — which measures people who have a job but would prefer more hours — dipped to 6.0%, reaching its lowest level since February 2023. Meanwhile, the underutilisation rate — which includes both unemployed and underemployed people — fell to 10.0%. 

Line graph titled “Australian unemployment measures.” With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 25%, Australian unemployment measures have eased recently, with the unemployment rate (4%), the underemployment rate (6%) and the underutilisation rate (10%) all falling. 
Line graph titled “Australian unemployment measures.” With a vertical axis ranging from 0 to 25%, Australian unemployment measures have eased recently, with the unemployment rate (4%), the underemployment rate (6%) and the underutilisation rate (10%) all falling. 

Participation in the workforce reached a new record high of 67.1% in December. The measure has increased by half a percentage point over the past year, primarily driven by higher participation among men. Hours worked also jumped by 0.5% in December, with growth in hours worked tracking employment gains throughout 2024.

Line graph titled “Australian labour force participation rate” shows both the seasonally-adjusted and the trend share of working-age population (%). With a vertical axis ranging from 60 to 68%, Australia’s participation rate reached a record high of 67.1% in December and is well above pre-pandemic levels.
Line graph titled “Australian labour force participation rate” shows both the seasonally-adjusted and the trend share of working-age population (%). With a vertical axis ranging from 60 to 68%, Australia’s participation rate reached a record high of 67.1% in December and is well above pre-pandemic levels.

Assessment and implications

The market continues to price in a high likelihood of a cash rate cut being delivered in early 2025. However, it’s difficult to square that away with what continues to be an incredibly strong job market, particularly one showing few signs of slowing down. Forward-looking measures of labour demand, such as Indeed job postings, suggest that conditions will remain strong in the near-term. 

Overall, the job market is much tighter than expected and is proving to be more resilient than even the most optimistic economy-watcher might have anticipated. In the December quarter, the unemployment rate averaged 4%, compared to forecasts from the RBA in November that it would reach 4.3%. That deviation from expectations will give the RBA plenty to think about when they meet in February.