This post is updated as of June 15, reflecting data through June 12. We will be regularly updating this data as we track how COVID-19 impacts the global labour market.
Key points:
- As of June 12th, the trend in total job postings on Indeed Canada stood at 41% below last year’s pace. The gap stood at 43% the previous Friday, and 48% a month prior.
- The gap in new postings narrowed further, to 29% below 2019’s path, from 37% a week earlier.
- While subdued compared to last year, job opportunities compared to last year have been more plentiful than average throughout the crisis in areas of healthcare and software development, and more recently in sectors like construction, and loading and stocking.
- On the flip-side, posting trends are faring relatively poorly in white-collar sectors like legal services and marketing, as well as in tourism and hospitality, and aviation.
Total job postings on Indeed Canada made gains last week, as of Friday, June 12th, standing 41% below last year’s trend. The gap was 43% the previous Friday, and 48% on May 12th. Overall hiring interest remains subdued compared to last year, but the pace of recovery in total postings has started to improve, especially since mid-May.
Pushing the total posting trend higher was continued momentum in new job postings, that have been on Indeed a week or less. The trend in new postings rose to 29% below last year’s level, up from -37% the week prior. The gap is now 20 percentage points narrower than it was a month earlier, and up a full 41 points from its low point in mid-April. Further progress in the new posting job trend will be key in driving total job postings higher, and for improving the outlook for Canadian job seekers. The good news is that things are moving in the right direction.
Employer appetite showing greater momentum in smaller provinces
With all provinces moving towards some form of gradual re-opening, the gap in new postings compared to last year has narrowed across the country. Smaller provinces in particular are seeing new postings being added at rates more similar to 2019, with the gap in trend 20% or less in Saskatchewan, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and Manitoba. Among the larger provinces, new postings are closer to last year’s trend in B.C. and Alberta, while the gap in Ontario is wider than the national average. Quebec’s gap looks similar to Ontario’s, partly reflecting a particularly strong 2019.
Prospects brighter for those seeking jobs in healthcare, construction, and warehousing
In recent weeks we’ve highlighted sectors where new job postings are showing greater momentum. However, it’s also important to keep tabs on trends in total job postings, which signify where opportunities are for job seekers today.
With the overall trend in job posting still down 41% from last year’s level, job posting trends remain subdued across the economy. However some sectors are faring better than others. Throughout the crisis, job postings have held up relatively well in several areas of the healthcare field, including nursing and personal care and home health, which includes personal support workers. Another area that’s done better than average since March is software development. However, joining this group more recently are the loading and stocking sector, which includes postings for warehouse workers, as well as in construction.
Job posting trends compared to last year look more similar to the overall average across a wide-range of sectors, including production and manufacturing, management, and cleaning and sanitation, which includes cleaners and housekeepers. Also falling in the category includes postings in the dental sector — which includes dentists, as well as dental hygienists and assistants — notable since this category had been among the ones to see opportunities dry up fastest earlier in the crisis.
Lastly, hiring appetite remains quite soft across several areas of the economy. Some are white collar sectors, like legal services, as well as marketing, while others are sectors that face particular challenges in a time of social distancing, like hospitality and tourism, and aviation.
The public health situation and its economic spillovers continue to change on a daily basis. We’ll be regularly updating this data as conditions evolve.
Methodology
To measure the trends in job postings, we calculated the 7-day moving average of the number of job postings on Indeed Canada. We index each day’s 7-day moving average to the start of February (Feb 1, 2020 = 100 for 2020 data, and so on).
We report how the trend in job postings this year differs from last year, in order to focus on the recent changes in labor market conditions due to COVID-19. For example: if job postings increased 30% from February 1, 2019, to April 10, 2019, but only 20% from February 1, 2020, to April 10, 2020, then the index would have risen from 100 to 130 in 2019 and 100 to 120 in 2020. The year-to-date trend in job postings would therefore be down 7.7% on April 10 (120 is 7.7% below 130) in 2020 relative to 2019.
For new postings, we calculate a similar metric but the underlying measure is the number of postings that have been on Indeed for seven days or less.
The number of job postings on Indeed.com, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.
