Key Points:

  • Canadian labour market trends from the first half of 2024 carried over into Q3, with employment posting moderate gains but continuing to lag strong population growth.
  • The unemployment rate edged up further, ending the quarter at 6.5%, though the pace of deterioration has been more gradual than other downturns, with slow hiring partially offset by low layoffs.
  • Despite ticking up in October, Indeed job postings were down 17% from a year earlier, standing 2% below their February 2020 level as of October 25. Postings are relatively close to their pre-pandemic baselines in most of the occupational sectors tracked by Indeed.
  • Hourly wage growth exceeded 4% year-over-year across several metrics in Q3, but the Indeed Wage Tracker showed advertised wage growth on job postings ticked down to 3.3%, which could be a sign of eventual reversion in pay growth to match otherwise soft labour market conditions. 

The Canadian labour market’s funk continued in Q3 2024. According to the Labour Force Survey (LFS), employment growth averaged a moderate 34,000 per month over August and September after a flat June and July. Payroll data from the Survey of Employment Payrolls and Hours (SEPH) fared better in July after dropping the month prior. However, neither survey showed employment keeping pace with strong population growth, which has been the case in the LFS for all but one month so far in 2024.

Line graph titled “Job gains trailed population growth in Q3” shows the change in Canadian employment according to the LFS and SEPH, and population from June 2022 through September 2024. After growing similarly through mid-2023, recently employment hasn’t been growing as fast.
Line graph titled “Job gains trailed population growth in Q3” shows the change in Canadian employment according to the LFS and SEPH, and population from June 2022 through September 2024. After growing similarly through mid-2023, recently employment hasn’t been growing as fast.

Trends were mixed beneath the headline job gains. A few industries posted solid payroll growth over the six months through July, according to SEPH (which is less volatile at the industry level than the LFS), especially education, arts and recreation, and health care. Others, including professional services and public administration — which have led net gains since early 2020 — eked out small gains. At the same time, employment in manufacturing, as well as several typically lower-paying service industries, including retail trade and food and accommodation, slipped. 

Scatter plot titled “Education and healthcare drove recent job growth” shows industry-level payroll growth according to SEPH as of July 2024, with the horizontal axis showing payroll growth since February 2020, and the y-axis showing the annualized growth rate over the past six months. Education, arts and entertainment, and healthcare have grown relatively quickly of late, while administrative and support services, as well as retail trade, have dropped over the past six months. 
Scatter plot titled “Education and healthcare drove recent job growth” shows industry-level payroll growth according to SEPH as of July 2024, with the horizontal axis showing payroll growth since February 2020, and the y-axis showing the annualized growth rate over the past six months. Education, arts and entertainment, and healthcare have grown relatively quickly of late, while administrative and support services, as well as retail trade, have dropped over the past six months. 

The unemployment rate told a similar story as aggregate job growth in Q3. The jobless rate ticked up to 6.5% in September from 6.4% in June, though the increase wasn’t as sharp as the 0.3 percentage point rise in Q2. This fits with a broader trend that has emerged over the past two years — the labour market’s deterioration has been relatively slow, and the unemployment rate isn’t especially high compared to previous recessions. This time, however, the process has been more drawn out. Joblessness spiked considerably higher during both the 1981 and 2008 downturns, but by two years since the prior trough in unemployment, the labour market had started to rebound. Meanwhile, in mid-2024, we’re still waiting for a turning point.    

Two-paneled line chart titled “Unemployment rise has been relatively mild, more drawn out.” The left panel shows the unemployment rates starting at their low points prior to the 1976, 1981, 1989, 2008, and 2022 labour market downturns, while the right panel shows how much the unemployment rate changed over these same periods. Overall, the Canadian unemployment rate remains lower than during previous downturns, but the duration of the deterioration has been longer than others. 
Two-paneled line chart titled “Unemployment rise has been relatively mild, more drawn out.” The left panel shows the unemployment rates starting at their low points prior to the 1976, 1981, 1989, 2008, and 2022 labour market downturns, while the right panel shows how much the unemployment rate changed over these same periods. Overall, the Canadian unemployment rate remains lower than during previous downturns, but the duration of the deterioration has been longer than others. 

Slow hiring remains the main driver of today’s weaker labour market. In Q3, new jobs were started at a rate 22% below average levels that prevailed during the same period in 2017-2019. However, layoff rates have also held low, down 10% compared to their pre-pandemic average, helping to keep overall conditions from going off the rails. Overall, while job security has remained solid, it has gotten tougher for those unlucky enough to lose work to land new roles. 

Line chart titled “Layoffs are low, but hiring even weaker” shows the Canadian employee layoff rate and new hiring rate in Q3 between 2014 and 2024, each series indexed to their 2017-2019 average. While the layoff rate is below its pre-pandemic average, the new hiring rate is further from its prior level. 
Line chart titled “Layoffs are low, but hiring even weaker” shows the Canadian employee layoff rate and new hiring rate in Q3 between 2014 and 2024, each series indexed to their 2017-2019 average. While the layoff rate is below its pre-pandemic average, the new hiring rate is further from its prior level. 

Postings down from a year ago despite October uptick

A material recovery in hiring will likely require a stabilization of employer recruiting activity. Canadian job postings on Indeed actually edged higher in October, but this was the first notable monthly uptick in 2024. As of October 25, job postings were down 17% from a year earlier, standing at 2% below their pre-pandemic level. Statistics Canada job vacancies were somewhat weaker through July, declining 27% year-over-year to levels 9% below where they were in February 2020. 

Line chart titled “Job postings have fully reversed their earlier boom” shows the percent change in Canadian job postings on Indeed, and Job Vacancies, according to Statistics Canada, between February 2020 and October 2024 (as of the 25th of the month). As of late-October 2024, Canadian job postings were down 2% from their pre-pandemic level, up slightly from a month earlier, but still down 17% from a year ago.
Line chart titled “Job postings have fully reversed their earlier boom” shows the percent change in Canadian job postings on Indeed and Job Vacancies, according to Statistics Canada, between February 2020 and October 2024 (as of the 25th of the month). As of late October 2024, Canadian job postings were down 2% from their pre-pandemic level, up slightly from a month earlier but still down 17% from a year ago.

Posting trends for most occupations look fairly similar to the broader economy. As of late-October, over half of all job postings were in sectors with postings within plus-or-minus 15% of their pre-pandemic level. And while this still suggests variation of strength within this group, occupations at the 25th percentile level of net-growth compared to early 2020 have declined similarly over the past two years as those at the 75th percentile. Meanwhile, outliers at the high end were still up in the range of +60%, generally in health care fields including nursing, while postings at the low end were down about 30%, in sectors including marketing, sales, and software development. 

Line chart titled “Job postings back to baseline among most occupations” shows Canadian job postings, indexed to February 1, 2020, through October 25, 2024, with different lines representing different percentile values across the distribution of occupational categories. Occupations at the 50th percentile of growth were at their pre-pandemic level, while those at the 75th percentile were somewhat higher, but also trending down. Only occupations near the 95th percentile were still substantially elevated.
Line chart titled “Job postings back to baseline among most occupations” shows Canadian job postings, indexed to February 1, 2020, through October 25, 2024, with different lines representing different percentile values across the distribution of occupational categories. Occupations at the 50th percentile of growth were at their pre-pandemic level, while those at the 75th percentile were somewhat higher, but also trending down. Only occupations near the 95th percentile were still substantially elevated.

Easing posted wage growth could filter to paychecks

Wage growth remained robust in Q3, continuing to defy both the easing labour market and slower inflation. After adjusting for changing jobs-mix, hourly pay as measured by the LFS came in at a solid 4.0% year-over-year pace in September, and the equivalent metric in SEPH actually accelerated to 4.7% in July. The process of at least partial catchup to the earlier surge prices has likely contributed to the still-elevated pace of pay gains in 2024, but with inflation now back below 2%, it’s surprising how long the trend has lasted. 

Line chart titled “Posted wages grew slower than other pay metrics in Q3” shows year-over-year wage growth, adjusted for composition changes, according to the LFS, SEPH, and the Indeed Wage Tracker. As of September, LFS fixed-weight wages were up 4.0% year-over-year, Indeed posted wages were up 3.3% in September, and fixed-weight wages in SEPH were up 4.7% in July (the latter two, 3-month averages). 
Line chart titled “Posted wages grew slower than other pay metrics in Q3” shows year-over-year wage growth, adjusted for composition changes, according to the LFS, SEPH, and the Indeed Wage Tracker. As of September, LFS fixed-weight wages were up 4.0% year-over-year, Indeed posted wages were up 3.3% in September, and fixed-weight wages in SEPH were up 4.7% in July (the latter two, 3-month averages). 

That said, posted wages advertised on Canadian job postings suggest the potential for cooling ahead. The Indeed Wage Tracker showed average year-over-year posted wage growth of 3.3% in Q3, down slightly from 3.5% in Q2. This slower pace is more in line with employers’ wage expectations for the year ahead, according to the Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey. 

More of the same

Canadian labour market trends have held remarkably consistent in 2024. As the headline-level stats have weakened, we’ve seen a growing divide between those experiencing good job security and solid wage growth, and those that are out of work struggling to find new roles — especially youth and recent newcomers. If the Canadian economic growth continues its modest, but sub-per capita pace as it has, it’s fair to expect the current labour market trends to continue into 2025.

Methodology 

All job postings figures in this blog post are the index of seasonally adjusted Canadian job postings on Indeed re-based to February 1, 2020, using a seven-day trailing average. February 1, 2020, is our pre-pandemic baseline. We seasonally adjust each series based on historical patterns in 2017, 2018, and 2019. Each series, including the national trend, occupational sectors, and sub-national geographies, is seasonally adjusted separately. 

The number of job postings on Indeed, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.

To calculate fixed-weight wage growth in the LFS, we bucket LFS microdata for each of the 43 occupation groups into three levels of job tenure (6 months or less, 7 to 24 months, and 25 months and over), and recalculate headline average wages into a composition-adjusted measure by holding their respective weights constant at February 2020 levels. For more information on how we assessed the exposure of different occupations to generative artificial intelligence, please refer to the methodology note.

Data on rates of layoffs, job leavers, and hires, as well as LFS fixed-weight wages, were calculated using the LFS public use microfiles.