Key points:
- At the start of November 2024, Canadian seasonal job postings were down 15% from a year earlier, substantially lower than their heights in 2022 and 16% below where they were at the same point in 2019.
- Holiday job postings are down over the past two years by a similar degree as the overall economy. Still, seasonal demand is weak compared to 2019, partly reflecting sluggish demand for workers in the retail sector more broadly.
- Canadian job seeker interest in seasonal work increased in 2024, with the share of searches containing holiday-related terms rising for a second straight year to 0.27% in early November 2024, up from 0.20% two years earlier.
- Soft employer demand for holiday workers, coupled with strong search interest, highlights the ongoing challenging environment facing Canadian job seekers, similar to trends during the recent summer job market.
Canadian job seeker conditions have been difficult in 2024, and it appears this trend will continue for those interested in seasonal work until the end of the year. As is the case every September, job postings with seasonal/holiday-related terms in their titles started rising, but this year’s ramp-up was relatively subdued. As of November 1 (usually near the peak for holiday job postings), the number of seasonal postings on Indeed was down 15% compared to where it stood a year earlier. Demand in 2023 was well off the exceptional levels reached in 2022, but nonetheless matched where it stood in 2019. As a result, seasonal postings this year are down 16% compared to 2019.
The decline in holiday job postings over the past two years has closely tracked broader trends in economy-wide postings. In early November, 1.2% of Canadian job postings had seasonal-related terms in their titles, close to where it stood at the same point in 2022. However, in 2019, the share was 1.5%, as total job postings this year were still near their 2019 level, while holiday-related postings were down substantially.
One driver of this seasonal weakness probably stems from lagging demand for workers in the retail and customer-facing sectors more broadly. Over three-quarters of Canadian holiday postings in October 2024 were for positions in retail, sales, or customer service. Job postings in these occupations, in general, were all further below their pre-pandemic levels than the economy-wide average.
The growth of e-commerce has likely contributed to this weakness. About 6% of Canadian retail sales in 2024 have been through online platforms (not including non-Canadian websites), still well above the 4% share reached before its spike during the pandemic. With e-commerce sales especially strong in November and December, as well as flat retail sales more broadly over the past two years, it’s not surprising that the holiday hiring cycle has become more muted.
Weaker labour market has more job seekers looking for seasonal work
Holiday job postings might be subdued this year, but that hasn’t dented job seeker interest. Rather, with slow hiring making it difficult for Canadians to find new jobs, job seekers are looking for seasonal roles at higher rates than in years past. As of November 1, 2024, 0.27% of Canadian job seeker searches on Indeed included seasonal or holiday-related terms — up from 0.24% at the same point last year, and 0.20% in 2022.
Weak seasonal hiring appetite, along with ample job seeker interest, suggest employers still in the market for workers over the holidays will have an easier time filling short-term positions to end the year. However, the outlook remains challenging for those looking for seasonal work. These dynamics have generally been defining features of the Canadian labour market throughout 2024. They’re also a potential sign that November and December will offer a repeat of the recent tough summer job market, in which the unemployment rate among students planning to return to school in the fall was the highest (outside of 2020) since 2012.
Methodology
We track holiday-related job postings by tallying job postings on Indeed Canada that use terms like ‘Christmas,’ ‘xmas,’ ‘santa,’ ‘holiday,’ ‘seasonal,’‘advent,’ as well as their French equivalents, while excluding terms like ‘technician,’ ‘labourer,’ ‘lifeguard’, and ‘tax’ that aren’t unique to the holiday season. We track job seeker interest in seasonal jobs by counting the number of searchers on Indeed Canada using these same terms. All numbers in the post represent seven-day moving averages.
The number of job postings on Indeed, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.