October brought more of the same for the Canadian labour market. Employment eked out modest gains, once again swamped by still-strong population growth. It’s a familiar pattern: Population has outpaced job growth in all but one month so far this year. Matching September, the unemployment rate held steady, but only because labour force participation slipped. Hours worked fared a bit better than jobs, snapping a two-month losing streak.
One trend that has emerged more recently is that middle-aged and older workers are starting to see conditions deteriorate. While youth employment rates are down sharply from a year ago, they’ve edged up since the summer. Meanwhile, the share of those aged 25-54 and those 55 and older with a job has ticked down for over three straight months.
The job market isn’t delivering for those out of work, but for those in stable employment, pay gains look healthy. Hourly earnings posted a 4.9% year-over-year gain in October, up from 4.6% the month prior. Wage growth has been in the neighbourhood of 5% all year, even as inflation has cooled sharply. It’s been a surprise all year to see wage growth continuously defy the otherwise negative trends. While there was room for a catch-up to the prior surge in inflation, the ingredients for future growth have faded. Still, wage growth approaches the end of 2024 in quite robust shape.
