Key points:

  • As of January 31, Canadian job postings were up 5% from late November 2024, holding steady through the start of 2025 amid rising potential for a Canada-US trade war.
  • Postings for manufacturing-related occupations have evolved similarly to the broader economy over this period, despite substantial exposure to disrupted trade. Job seeker interest in manufacturing-related postings has slipped, though this data tends to be volatile. 
  • With the ultimate trajectory of Canada-US trade in flux, the evolution of job postings will be one of the first economic data points to showcase whether the uncertain environment is impacting the labour market.

The prospect of US tariffs on Canadian imports has sent economic uncertainty through the roof since the 2024 US election. So far, though, there’s been little visible impact on employer recruiting activity.

Canadian job postings on Indeed have held steady so far in 2025, and as of Friday, January 31, were up 5% from November 25, when then-President-elect Trump first proposed import tariffs on Canadian goods. Postings at the end of January were down 5% from a year earlier, driven by declines through the first three quarters of 2024, but a partial rebound in Q4 brought the year-over-year change closer to even. Meanwhile, new postings (those posted within the last seven days) have also remained firm since November, indicating that the recent stability in total postings reflects recent employer activity, rather than job ads posted earlier. 

Line chart titled “Job postings have held up in recent months,” with different coloured lines showing the index of total and new Canadian job postings between June 2024 and January 31, 2025. Both total and new postings are up since 25% tariffs were first floated on November 25, 2024. 
Line chart titled “Job postings have held up in recent months,” with different coloured lines showing the index of total and new Canadian job postings between June 2024 and January 31, 2025. Both total and new postings are up since 25% tariffs were first floated on November 25, 2024. 

Employers’ lack of reaction to tariff talk has extended to occupational sectors likely most exposed to the potential shock. While still below their pre-pandemic level, postings for jobs in production and manufacturing have evolved similarly to the rest of the economy in recent weeks, and were 6% higher at the end of January than they were in late November. Other job categories potentially at risk, including installation & maintenance and mechanical engineering, have also fared relatively well over this period.

Line chart titled “Postings in tariff-exposed occupations haven’t fallen,” with different coloured lines showing the index of Canadian job postings for roles in production & manufacturing, installation & maintenance, and mechanical engineering, as well as to total postings, between June 2024 and January 31, 2025. All four series were above their late-November levels in January. 
Line chart titled “Postings in tariff-exposed occupations haven’t fallen,” with different coloured lines showing the index of Canadian job postings for roles in production & manufacturing, installation & maintenance, and mechanical engineering, as well as to total postings, between June 2024 and January 31, 2025. All four series were above their late-November levels in January. 

Trade uncertainty could also impact the labour market by causing job seekers to shy away from jobs that future tariffs could threaten. Job seeker interest tends to be volatile, but since late November, the average number of clicks received by manufacturing job postings has slipped relative to postings elsewhere. At the start of the tariff discussion in late November, manufacturing postings received 7% fewer clicks than the average job ad on Indeed. By late January, the gap had widened to 10% fewer clicks. 

The prospect of a trade war is a dark cloud over the Canadian economy, though the ultimate policy direction is highly uncertain. Payrolls in trade-exposed sectors have been quite flat in recent years, but ratcheting up tariffs for any extended period could cause a serious hit. Employer recruiting activity held steady amid the initial uncertainty, but things could change if the situation persists. 

Methodology

All job postings figures in this blog post are the index of seasonally adjusted Canadian job postings on Indeed re-based to February 1, 2020, using a seven-day trailing average. 

The number of job postings on Indeed, whether related to paid or unpaid job solicitations, is not indicative of potential revenue or earnings of Indeed, which comprises a significant percentage of the HR Technology segment of its parent company, Recruit Holdings Co., Ltd. Job posting numbers are provided for information purposes only and should not be viewed as an indicator of performance of Indeed or Recruit. Please refer to the Recruit Holdings investor relations website and regulatory filings in Japan for more detailed information on revenue generation by Recruit’s HR Technology segment.