The UK labour market could use a shot in the arm ahead of a significant rise in employment costs to come in April. Cuts to key interest rates might help, but continued hot wage growth and the stubborn inflation that comes with it threaten to limit the dose of monetary medicine the Bank of England will likely be able to administer. With regular pay growth running at around 6% in December, rate setters continue to signal only gradual interest rate cuts, despite economic growth that was only barely positive at the end of 2024 and looks weak headed into 2025.
While strong wage growth remains a headache for monetary policymakers, it’s good news for workers. After accounting for CPI inflation, the value of their pay packets is rising 3.4% year-on-year, providing respite for beleaguered consumers still grappling with fresh cost-of-living shocks.
While the labour market faces strong headwinds, it continues to show resilience. The number of payrolled employees was broadly flat over the fourth quarter and was up 0.3% on the year.
That chimes with real-time job postings data from Indeed, which shows hiring demand remains soft but at least isn’t getting any weaker. UK job postings on Indeed have generally been treading water since October’s Budget, remaining 15% below pre-pandemic levels as of mid-February. Employers continue to sit on their hands amid uncertain economic prospects, with few having the confidence to dial up hiring in the current climate.
The key question is what comes next. Redundancy notifications have remained modest despite warnings that a rise in layoffs could be in the offing. Whether that remains the case will be key to the UK labour market’s prospects in 2025.
